Spring 2026 Seminar Series
All seminars this semester will be held in person, from 11:30am – 12:45pm, in the Public Policy Building, Room 367.
Tuesday, February 17
Scott Stern, Ph.D.
David Sarnoff Professor of Management of Technology
Professor, Technological Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Strategic Management
MIT Sloan School of Management
Title: Did COVID Change the Black Neighborhood Startup Deficit? Evidence from the Startup Cartography Project
Abstract: This paper examines the relative rate of new firm formation in Black neighborhoods both over time and with particular attention to the period after COVID and finds evidence of two equilibria consistent with a poverty trap. Motivated by the seminal work of Wilson (1987, 1996, 2009) which seeks to explain the economic isolation experienced by Black neighborhoods in the context of a broader urban renaissance, we hypothesize both the existence of long-term, localized stagnation in relative startup formation in Black neighborhoods and the possibility of an alternative equilibrium. Leveraging data from the Startup Cartography Project, we find evidence that, compared to otherwise similar neighborhoods, Black neighborhoods register a lower rate of startup formation between 2000-2018. Following COVID, the relative rate of startup formation flips from a deficit to a surplus in 2020 and 2021, before returning to a deficit in 2023. We consider whether measures associated with gentrification (e.g., recent migration, income growth, changes in home values) and the extension of PPP loans explain the increased rate of startup formation observed in Black neighborhoods. We find that they do not, suggesting the possibility of a higher relative startup formation rate in equilibrium. We then note that, given heightened civil activism and public sentiment in support of Black lives and Black businesses during 2020, the rise in the level and rate of startup formation in Black neighborhoods may reflect both an outward shift in the demand for products and services of Black-owned firms and the supply of Black entrepreneurs, as well as an increasing level of dynamism within Black communities experiencing a renewed sense of empowerment during this period. We undertake an exploratory assessment of name-based markers associated with newly registered businesses to explore these potential drivers and find evidence that, relative to 2018 and comparable neighborhoods, there is a more significant increase in the rate of newly registered firms that incorporate expressions of Black identity in their business names in 2020 and 2021 in Black neighborhoods.
Tuesday, March 24
Nuno Limao, Ph.D.
Wallenberg Chair in International Business and Finance
Georgetown University
Title: Economic Consequences of US National (In)Security
Abstract: We examine the structure, rationale, and economic impacts of export controls and their growing use for national security reasons. U.S. export controls primarily target dual-use goods with both civilian and military applications—through licensing requirements and multilateral agreements such as the Wassenaar Arrangement. Recent policy changes, particularly in high-tech sectors like semiconductors and aerospace, have increased trade frictions, causing delays, higher costs, and regulatory uncertainty. About 44% of U.S. exports fall under some form of export control, though only a fraction require a formal license. We estimate how much export controls, even those requiring minimal licensing, reduce exports and how the effects are mitigated for members of multilateral export control regimes (MECRs). We combine our estimated effects with a structural input-output general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of unilateral versus multilateral control measures on trade.
Friday, April 10th from 2:30 – 3:45pm ***please note the time of this seminar***
Belinda Archibong
Associate Professor
Faculty Co-Lead, Development, Climate, and Sustainability Focus Area
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Tuesday April 21
Nicholas Carollo, Ph.D.
Senior Economist, Labor Markets
Division of Research and Statistics
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Title: The Origins and Evolution of Occupational Licensing in the United States
Abstract: Despite a dramatic increase in government regulation over the past century, relatively little is known about how new regulatory institutions emerge and evolve over long periods of time. In this paper, we examine the history and political economy of occupational licensing—a major category of labor market regulation—in the United States from 1870 to 2020. We first develop a theoretical framework in which licensing arises as an endogenous policy choice shaped jointly by social welfare considerations and professional association influence. Our empirical analysis then draws on a new historical database tracking the adoption of state and federal licensing requirements for hundreds of occupations. We first show that licensing is more common and adopted earlier for occupations whose tasks plausibly pose greater risks to consumers. Second, event history analysis reveals that market size is strongly associated with the timing of policy adoption in the early 20th century, while political and institutional characteristics are more important in later decades. Using an occupation-specific immigration shift-share instrument, we find that increased labor market competition raises the likelihood of regulation, consistent with incumbent practitioners’ incentives to restrict entry. Finally, we show that state professional associations substantially increase the probability of regulation immediately after their founding, highlighting the role of political organization. Together, these findings demonstrate how a combination of public and private interests, as well as broader institutional factors, have influenced the growth and diffusion of occupational licensing.
Fall 2025 Seminar Series
All seminars this semester will be held in person, from 11:30am – 12:45pm, in the Public Policy Building, Room 367.
Thursday, September 4
Sara Benetti
Ph.D. student, Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia
Title: The Social Consequences of Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Electrification and Immigrant Labor
Abstract: This paper studies how radical technological change shapes the integration of immigrant workers by examining the early expansion of the high-voltage electric grid in the United States between 1900 and 1940. Electrification transformed U.S. manufacturing by enabling assembly-line production, lowering the need for coordination on the factory floor. These changes particularly benefited low-skilled immigrant workers, increasing their participation in manufacturing and enabling greater ethnic mixing within industries.
The analysis combines full-count census data with newly digitized maps of the electric grid over time. It takes advantage of variations in the timing of county-level electrification to estimate its causal impact on the ethnic composition of the manufacturing workforce. The results show that electrification increased the share of foreign-born workers, raised workforce diversity, and reduced occupational segregation across ethnic groups. These findings suggest that electrification attenuated the prevailing trends of declining immigrant representation and increasing segregation in manufacturing at the end of the Age of Mass Migration.
The paper also investigates whether workplace integration translates into broader social outcomes. It examines changes in residential segregation and cultural assimilation—measured by the Americanization of children’s names and intermarriage rates—of immigrant workers, comparing electrified and non-electrified areas. Overall, the findings indicate that electrification facilitated labor market inclusion and promoted longer-term cultural integration of workers employed in manufacturing. The paper contributes to understanding how radical technological change can shape not only productivity and labor demand but also the social fabric of diverse societies.
Tuesday, September 16
Leah Hamilton
Department of Social Work, Appalachian State University
Title: Targeted Cash Transfers and Financial Well-Being: Findings from the In Her Hands and St. Louis GI Pilots
Abstract: This study examines the impact of guaranteed income (GI) on financial well-being through two U.S. pilot programs targeting historically marginalized communities. Using longitudinal survey data from the In Her Hands (IHH) pilot in Georgia and administrative credit records from the St. Louis Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI) pilot, we examine how GI influences recipients’ credit health, debt, savings behavior, and reliance on high-cost financial services. In the IHH pilot, 654 low-income Black women across urban, suburban, and rural communities were randomly assigned to receive 24 monthly GI payments. Results indicate significant reductions in the use of alternative financial services, as well as an increased likelihood of having an emergency fund and higher overall savings. Debt balances remained largely unchanged. In the St. Louis GBI pilot, which provided $500 monthly payments to low-income families with school-aged children, participants experienced statistically significant improvements in credit scores and delinquency rates compared to a matched comparison group. A temporary legal pause in payments during the study period led to a reversal in these improvements, offering rare insight into the destabilizing effects of benefits withdrawal. Together, these findings suggest that GI can promote short-term financial stability and reduce reliance on predatory financial services, particularly among Black women and low-income families. However, the fragility of these gains underlines the importance of consistency and policy design in GI implementation. This study contributes to a growing body of literature on how unconditional cash transfers may advance economic justice in racially marginalized communities
Tuesday, October 14
Meiping Aggie Su
Economics, Fordham University
Title: Long-term and Multi-generational Impacts of Skilled Birth Attendance
Abstract: This paper examines the long-term and multi-generational benefits of skilled birth attendance (SBA), which involves having a trained midwife or doctor present at delivery to safely perform normal deliveries using aseptic techniques and provide first-line emergency obstetric care. Using data on the county-by-county rollout of SBA in China from the 1930s to the 1970s, our research first demonstrates that the SBA reform substantially reduced neonatal mortality. We then show that exposure to skilled delivery during birth leads to a 1.5% increase in adult income. Moreover, we discovered that the benefits of exposure to SBA in previous generations extend to subsequent offspring. Children with at least one parent who experienced SBA have a 2.6% higher monthly income in adulthood than those whose parents did not have access to SBA. This effect is more pronounced when the mother, rather than the father, was exposed to SBA. We also present evidence of several underlying mechanisms, including improved physical and mental health, better educational outcomes, and enhanced cognitive abilities. Our findings indicate that having skilled health professionals attend childbirths can result in significant long-term and multi-generational benefits.
Wednesday, October 29
Paul Mohnen
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Title: The Introduction of Social Security and Elderly Mortality
Abstract: The introduction of Social Security in the United States in 1935 and its subsequent expansion were associated with transformative changes in the lives of the elderly, such as falling male labor force participation at older ages and rising independent living among older women and men. In this project, we investigate how the early Social Security program affected longevity, a fundamental dimension of well-being and an important determinant of the fiscal sustainability of old-age support programs. We combine an empirical approach that exploits within-occupation, cross-industry differences in Social Security coverage in the early years of the program with a dataset giving age-at-death information for men and women linked to the 1930 full-count Census. We find that men who were more likely to have received Social Security, or received it earlier, lived longer as a result. In contrast, we find no evidence that the early Social Security program affected the longevity of their wives. Preliminary evidence based on task characteristics of occupations, coded from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, suggests that earlier exit from physically demanding or hazardous jobs was an important channel through which Social Security extended the lives of older men in the mid-20th century.
Tuesday, November 11
Aakash Kalyani
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Title: New Technologies and the College Premium
Abstract: This paper shows that the pace of technology creation is a key driver of wage inequality. It develops a model where college-educated workers learn how to use new technologies faster than others, and where this advantage dissipates over time as technologies become standardized and easier to use. In equilibrium, the college wage premium is determined by the interplay between the pace of technology creation and standardization. A heightened pace of technology creation causes a long-lasting increase in the college premium. We calibrate the model using novel text-based data on new technologies and their changing demand for skills as they age. These data show that new technologies initially require more college-educated workers but see a reversal as they age. The data also point to an increased rate of new technology creation starting in the 1980s and tapering off in the 2000s. In response to this measured acceleration in the pace of technology creation, the model generates a 25 log point increase in the college premium that begins to revert in the 2010s. In extensions, we allow new technologies to diffuse from dense to lower-density cities, and younger workers to have a comparative advantage in new technologies. These extensions explain why the college premium is generally higher in dense cities, why its increase was mainly an urban phenomenon, and why it had a marked age pattern, rising first for young workers and then for older workers.
Friday, November 21
Nicholas Papageorge
Economics, Poverty and Inequality Research Lab, Johns Hopkins University
Title: Genetic Risk for Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementias: Cognition, Economic Behavior, and Long-Run Planning
Abstract: Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) are widespread and costly. The severe under-diagnosis of ADRD impedes many people from preparing for related health and economic consequences. Existing work has identified several genetic predictors of ADRD, including APOE-ε4 and a polygenic score for ADRD, but genes do not yet figure prominently in ADRD screening. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we first show that observed genetic factors can significantly improve the prediction of future ADRD beyond what is possible using standard predictors like past cognitive test scores and family history. We then test whether individuals with elevated genetic risk engage in behaviors that could help them plan for or respond to future ADRD. APOE-ε4 carriers face dramatically higher rates of future ADRD, and we find weak evidence that they are aware of their elevated risk and engage in some financial and legal preparations. Individuals with higher polygenic scores are also more likely to develop ADRD, but are significantly less likely to engage in planning activities, such as having long-term care insurance or a durable power of attorney. These results raise the possibility that genetic screening can help individuals at risk of ADRD, but who are unaware and unprepared and thus especially vulnerable.
Spring 2025 Seminar Series
Tuesday, April 1st – virtual
11:30am – 12:45pm
Marta Lorimer
School of Law and Politics, Cardiff University
Title: Europe as Ideological Resource: European Integration and Far Right Legitimation in France and Italy
Abstract: While far-right parties were long relegated to the political margins, today they are regular features of European party systems. How did they go from an illegitimate fringe to contenders for public office – and did Europe have anything to do with it? In her book,
Europe as Ideological Resource, Marta Lorimer argues that European integration functioned as an ideological resource for far-right parties, enabling them to refashion their political message in a more acceptable form while maintaining the allegiance of existing supporters. Drawing on qualitative analysis of documents produced by the Movimento Sociale Italiano/Alleanza Nazionale and the Rassemblement National, the book identifies the discourses these parties used to talk about Europe, and the legitimation mechanisms associated with them. By understanding how European integration facilitated the far right’s transition from the margins to the mainstream, this book adds one piece to the puzzle of far-right legitimation.
April 14 | 11:30 am – 12:45pm | Public Policy, Room 367
Stefan Szymanski
School of Kinesiology, University of Michigan
Title: Sporting Regulatory Capture
Abstract: Regulatory capture occurs when a state agency falls under the control of a regulated firm or special interest in ways that distort the fulfilment of the agency’s mission (see e.g. Dal Bó (2006)). Sports governing bodies are quasi-governmental organizations established with a mission to promote their sport as a whole. Sporting regulatory capture occurs when a regulated entity (such as a league), or a special interest group (such as broadcasters) is able to control the governing body for its own interest, distorting the governing body’s mission. This paper illustrates the phenomenon of sporting regulatory capture using the example of the English Football Association and its changing attitudes to the freedom of movement for players.
Monday, April 28 | 11:30am – 12:45pm | Public Policy, Room 367
Naomi Utgoff
Economics Department, United States Naval Academy
Title: Service Assignment at the United States Naval Academy
Abstract: Service assignment is the process which assigns each member of USNA’s senior class to one of several communities, each representing a career path within the Navy. This matching problem is unique to the literature in that it features hard minimums, individual rationality constraints, and the requirement that every midshipman be assigned to a community. A stable assignment is generally impossible under these requirements: we characterize a natural relaxation that we call minimal unfairness. We then introduce the individual rationality adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm (IRDA) and show that it always selects a minimally unfair assignment which respects the Navy’s requirements. This mechanism relies on the construction of a series of caps which combine the minimums, maximums, and individual rationality constraints. These caps thus determine when a community must reject a midshipman, as well as which midshipman should be rejected. Unlike standard deferred acceptance in which the rejecting community simply rejects its least favorite proposal(s) above its ceiling, IRDA identifies a rejectable set of midshipmen, and forces the rejection of a midshipman in that set. We also discuss two alternative mechanisms, generalized serial dictatorship (GSD) and eligibility type capped deferred acceptance (ECDA), and contrast their properties with IRDA.
Tuesday, May 6 | 11:30am – 12:45pm | Public Policy, Room 367
Pablo Slutzky
Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park
Title: Drug Money and Bank Lending: The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Money Laundering Policies
Abstract: We examine how anti-money laundering (AML) policies impact banks and credit provision to firms. For identification, we exploit a regulation in Colombia aimed at controlling the flow of drug trafficking proceeds into the financial system. Our findings indicate that bank deposits decline in municipalities with high levels of drug trafficking. More critically, this liquidity shock affects credit availability in other municipalities: banks that source deposits from high drug-trafficking areas reduce lending compared to other banks. Using a proprietary database on bank-firm credit relationships, we also show that small firms relying on credit from these banks experience negative shocks to sales, investment, and profitability. Finally, using night lights data, we confirm that these results do not reflect a shift in activity across firms or between the formal and informal sectors. Our findings highlight a hidden cost to be considered when implementing AML policies.
